In our view, LGFV credit quality is set to see further differentiation in 2023, due to changes in the financing environment, regional land markets and debt maturity pressure. Weak LGFVs will come under growing liquidity pressure, as credit events such as non-standard debt defaults and bank loan restructures increase.
Against this backdrop, we assessed the banking sector’s exposure to weak LGFVs, and potential impact on capital. We don’t see LGFV risks posing a significant threat to banks’ overall capital adequacy, with capital pressure largely concentrated among certain city banks.
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